Joint Probability Analysis of Hurricane Flood Hazards for Mississippi

This report documents the development of a probabilistic model to represent the occurrence rate and characteristics of future hurricanes capable of producing significant surge inundation along the Mississippi coast, using available hurricane data and statistical tools that have been developed for the offshore oil industry. The report also documents the generation of a suite of synthetic storms, and associated recurrence rates, which provide an efficient representation of the population of possible future hurricanes and their characteristics, for use as inputs to numerical wind, wave, and surge models. These synthetic storms are generated by means of a JPM-OS (Joint-Probability Method—Optimal Sampling) scheme, which is also described in the report.